Adobe’s Flash flap: Are concerns overblown?
Posted by admin in Adobe CS5 NewsFeb 11th, 2010 | 35 responsesAdobe’s well-publicized battle with Apple over Flash’s future on the iPhone and iPad may have cast some doubt on the ubiquitous software, but the flap is way overblown, according to an analyst who is putting his money (or at least his buy rating) where his mouth is.
Jefferies analyst Ross MacMillan upgraded Adobe to a “buy” because the flap over Flash has drawn attention away from a more critical component: The Creative Suite 5 (CS5) buying cycle.
In a research note, MacMillan writes:
We continue to believe that the CS5 product cycle will be decent, driven by attractive features, some new product additions, a healthier end-market, some pent-up demand and perhaps a little tailwind from Windows 7 upgrades. If total cycle revenues with CS5 resemble total cycle CS3 revenues, as we believe, there is money to be made here. If we are wrong, we like the fact that the company’s late CY09 cost reduction provides EPS support. We also think concerns over the future of Flash are overblown. While we don’t think Flash will be the only rich media container for the web, neither do we think it will disappear. More importantly, Flash has almost zero bearing on revenues for Adobe over the next 18 months.
Also on zdnet.com: Adobe’s creative legacy & the proprietary aspirations of Apple & Google
It’s hard to argue with MacMillan on the Flash point. The big argument is that HTML5 is going to make Flash irrelevant. And HTML5 just might—years from now. This HTML5 vs. Flash debate, which according to early adopters you’d think was already decided, played out on the Enterprise Irregular email list recently. Among the key points:
- Flash is a runtime. HTML5 is a specification. Today, they aren’t all that comparable.
- Enterprises and most of the content companies that build around Flash aren’t going to suddenly drop support.
- Flash is more than videos—it’s about rich clients on thin computing devices.
- The Flash ecosystem is rich and that attracts developers.
- It will take a decade for HTML5 to eradicate Flash if everything goes just perfectly (it won’t). Keep in mind Web standards are messy and take time to develop.
Regarding that final point, MacMillan writes:
We believe the stock has come under additional pressure recently, due to concerns over the future of Flash. Apple’s ongoing persistence to not include the Flash plug-in or run-time on the iPhone/ iPad coupled with Steve Job’s comments regarding Flash is one thing. Google’s YouTube Beta using HTML5 and the H.264 video codec (as opposed to Flash) is another. Adobe has retorted, with the CTO explaining Adobe’s position and point of view on his blog. The bottom line for us is that we think it likely that Flash’s share on the web will likely decline over time, but it is not going away. First, there is no agreed video tag for HTML5 today (with sparring tag technologies of H.264 and Theora supported by various camps). Second, HTML5 in its current specification does not support many of the features that Flash supports, such as audio streaming or games.
Strip away the concerns about Flash and you have a good old fashioned buying cycle to play, according to MacMillan. Instead of worrying about Flash fear, uncertainty and doubt it’s more productive to follow the revenue of CS4 and the launch of Acrobat 10 in the second half.
Larry Dignan Original post
35 Responses to “Adobe’s Flash flap: Are concerns overblown?”
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About Me
Flash is fine.
HTML5 will take 3 years to make solid and even then, it will take the world 10 years from then to have the majority of users be on an HTML5 compliant browsers.
And at that time, Internet Explorer 17 will be out, and tout FULL and COMPLETE CSS2 compliance.
Heh…. heh heh heh.
@Aaron M.
You want an IE17???
I think it would do Adobe well to take the lead and develop a hybrid player that is open source and embraces web standards.
HTML 5! Canvas! The end of Flash is upon us, cover your heads!!
Uh-huh.
Tell you what… HTML 5 zealots can keep proclaiming the instant demise of Flash (it’s just around the corner!), Apple can keep damaging their public image by snubbing proven technologies with arrogance and allowing Jobs to crank up his Reality Distortion Field ™ to even more comical levels- with the aid of his ‘magical’ devices and such… me, I’ll just keep building Flash solutions for my clients for several years to come.
Sounds like a plan.
HTML5 is a great step forward, but just like Microsoft’s ‘Expression’ Suite, it never got ANYWHERE CLOSE to being the ‘Adobe Killer’ people said it would be.
Same deal with Flash. Flash is king. Silverlight is a joke, as is with all imitated Microsoft technologies.
I have a feeling CS5 won’t be out in April. For being only a month and a half away, there’s simply no news about CS5 out there. I won’t be surprised if Adobe pushes CS5 back to October.
HTML vs Flash.. the endless war..
HTML is not a threat to Flash. At least so far. Even being charitable and assuming that HTML 5 becomes strong enough to kills Flash, it is going to be at least 10 years before it happens, and that’s is a whole lifetime in Internet years.
So, no matter what they say, Flash still has a long road left to travel.
HTML5 might take away the flash video that we see on peoples sites, but thats it. It is not a programming language, it is a markup language. Anyone who develops anything that requires just a little code, then HTML5 is out the door. Great, they will have a DRAG and DROP feature and a CANVAS feature. That, and the ability to play videos is all HTML5 has. As far as programming goes, I will never stop using AS3 (and the next Adobe Flash Programming language) because unless I am creating the next huge MMORPG, the Adobe AS3 language can literally do anything I want it to do..; and who knows, in the future where Adobe will take this language. It went from a weak, quick script language to being fleshed out with OOP and nearly everything else that other prestigious languages have. It can literally do anything! HTML5, I laugh at you.
Flash won’t disapear suddenly, and in future we will need Tools to build html5 sites as well.
We will need Tools to create for any platform: apple/microsoft/linux/google os.
Who has most experiences with “hybrid multimedia editors”?
The Dreamweaver/Flash/Director Team.
I think it will be out in May/June. There were never big news out before Adobe announced CS5. Although there are some news about Premiere CS5 and Photoshop CS5 out there (just google for videos e.g.).
It’s true that Flash will not die anytime soon, however I believe that is because of developers and clients, not because of end-users desires.
All these comments seem to center on Flash vs HTML5, but it’s more accurate as HTML5+CSS3+Javascript. Most people do know realize the power that lies in JS, including OOP. It’s fast and its capable if you take the time to really learn it (start with “Pro JavaScript Techniques” by John Resig).
The real issue I have with Flash is its closed nature and that the player itself, and probably all of Flash, needs a good clean rewrite. It’s also horribly abused by people (go to almost any restaurant site for a usability nightmare thanks to Flash).
But there is an “Easy” solution to keep Flash competitive, make the player Open Source. Do that and you may capture the attention of all the OSS zealots and developers – and even Apple itself would probably develop their own in-house version.
Do that, and Flash never dies, imho.
I don’t think Flash as a runtime will die. But, please for the love of God, kill .flv files and move to the more open video standard that is H.264. That is the problem. If Flash exported to include .mov like it used to (Flash 4), the Apple would not have a hate on for the product. Flash is great, really great at a lot of things. But flv must die a horrible death.
Lets stop knocking flash. First of all, the reason flash exists is precisely becasue of the failures of the Apple and Microsoft. If they actually gave a damn about better web content then they (and the world) would have pushed for better html a long damn time ago. Its there fault that we generally only have flash, it is not Adobe’s fault.
Adobe gave us what the giants of computers refused to even touch with a ten foot pole. Only now do they give a damn about better images and web content due to thier lagging sales in other areas and the webs prominance as a commerce function.
SO you can put movies and other content in html 5, oohhhh big friggen deal! Are you going to use Microsoft progroms to make that content, hell no. Are you going to use Apple programs, most likely not. No, your going to use adobe programs, thats what.
Here is what i think Adobe might say about this: “You mean we stop focusing on flash and just move more function to Dreamweaver instead? Well why the hell didn’t you make html 5 years ago then? Its about time they caught up to us but we’re stimm moving on!”
I like apple products, but i’m quite dissapointed i can’t have flash on my iphone.
The ipad look great, but it still don’t have flash and i would like to visit some websites that need flash (not only watch videos but visit websites with aplications…)
I’m pretty sure other companies will make tablets like these…maybe better, maybe not..
and maybe the solution is to crack the ipad with something like cydia…maybe adobe should release an “unofficial” apple flash plugin for cydia…
This “war” is productive!
Flash is more than video? HTML 5 too. What about the offline DB storage as example?
I think the problem is not the runtime or the browser, or who will deliver the rich experience. But the tools that will be able to produce that experience.
I think that right now, there is no alternative to Flash that can provide the same results, but event if there will be in the near future, there are simply no decent tools to write html 5 right now.
Developer like myself love the fact they can code with a great tools and be able to provide their content to everybody independent from the platform they are using.
If in the long run html 5 will be able to provide the same content that the Flash Player can, what Adobe should do, is to allow developer to write their code with the same tools they are used to use. Sort of what they are doing now with Flash cs5 being able to deploy IPhone apps.
Sure, Flash is ubiquitous and it makes it easy to create dynamic content. Nobody really competes with its delivery range and firm hold on the wider RIA market share.
In the other hand, developing in ActionScript (either 2 or 3) is a nightmare. The language itself is pretty decent, but that’s about it. The integrated editor is severely lacking, and the way AS integrates with content, the glitches in the API, the poor handling of libraries and assets — it’s all a hindrance for application development. Flash is nowhere near .NET in terms of a serious development platform, and this is where Adobe could start losing ground.
SydField,
mate i could disagree more. AS3 is a solid pro langue. I’ve been writing commercial application for over 25 years and used more languages than I can even remember. I mean lots. Including half a dozen assembler languages, and have used just about any language you care to name, and action script 3 is a strong development tool. The flash VM is a solid runtime to work inside, and again I’ve developed to a lot of platforms, computer OS’s, Consoles, and strange embedded Oss. And I tell you, right now if you want to develop a web enable application there isn’t another option that comes close.
Flash and .net, well it’s a more difficult discussion. Flash AND .net, now there’s a good combination and one we’ve used often, not my favourite combination but powerful there’s no doubt. There’s good reasons that Microsoft use Flash, they don’t do it just to make Adobe happy.
These aren’t just words based on what i wish were true. I don’t care which platform, VM or standard becomes the most popular. I have no ties to any one system. I’ve used too many in my time to have that kind of attachment. My selections are based on what’s best at the time for my clients. When spend a lot of money researching systems to develop towards and spend a reasonable amount of time and money looking to the future so we can offer our clients whats best.
Flash as an application platform hasn’t anything to compare to it. Trying to compare it to HTML 5/6/7/8 is just not possible. It’s like trying to compare to Window 7 and HTML, nonsense. HTML is a mark-up specification, just that nothing else.
As for The flash VM being open, well that’s never been an issue for us. What is an issue is that it works and has the functionality, maintenance and ubiquity our clients need. Ok, HTML is an open specification, but so what. Have you ever added anything to that specification? Has anyone you know? How about how the spec end’s up being impetrated? How many different venders are going to have their own interpretation? And who has control of that?
And as for Apple. It just makes me sad. Im looking forward to the day Jobs statue falls and we can all hit it with our shoes. He should also remember how much influence Adobe had on Mac’s success. I wonder where it would be if Adobe hadn’t put Photoshop et al on Mac? Not where they are today thats for sure. iPad, very poor. I wanted one just because, but we couldn’t get any clients to show even the slightest interest in it, and we still have iPhones sat in a big box that we’re replaced by Android Hero’s by the last client we did mobile for. Its a shame, cus they look great. But haven’t to ask if it’s ok to get an app into market was just too much. Just like when we developed for Nintendo and we had to go cap in hand just to publish our own work. No, no more of that thanks.
Oh, and thanks for letting me have a little rant here. I for one love the debate and the battles. Ultimately we are the ones who win. Keep the big boys fighting and their products just get better. Lets see what the Flash VM can do by the time HTML 5 has a 98% penetration.
Cheers
glenn
ps – excuse spells/typos, written in haste while eating a banana sandwich(true)
Flash is a dead end. If Adobe wants to waste resources (not that they devote much into the platform) then that shows what a lumbering, myopic, and unimaginative company they really are.
The technology was built to fill some niche in the late 90’s. The web has changed and is changing. Adobe are not adapting, but rather added bandaid after bandaid to keep their aging software from falling off the map.
Apple is the first to show that Flash has no place in the future of the internet (or really anywhere). If Adobe was a progressive company, they would have re-written Flash from the ground-up and secured a position in this new era. But they didn’t.
As for all those people that say HTML5 is years away, that may be true, but that doesn’t mean it’s not coming and we shouldn’t make every effort to contribute to its growth. Regardless, Adobe has sealed its own fate by being smug and arrogant in dealing with Apple. But that road was built long ago when Adobe sat back and did nothing more than ride the Flash train. Well times change and if you don’t change with them, you find ourself extinct…
Great comment Glenn,
It’s so true when you say “Where would apple be if adobe didn’t make photoshop for mac?”
I feel as a creative professional that Apple has moved into a direction that alienates my loyalty as a creative. It seems that they are poised to create a consumer targeted, locked down, and censored environment.
It is clear to me that Apple is focused on the consumer segment and has forgotten about the core group [creatives] that made them who they are.
I am eager to jump ship from Apple, and I just wish a company like “RED Camera” focused on the professional market would come into the computing space. Adobe should make an OS… I mean other than CS4 and a web browser I don’t need apple..
Anything apple builds, adobe + google do better…Sony could provide the hardware.
I hope someone is listening,
Frost
Adobe getting into hardware and producing an OS would be a great idea. I’m writing this on a Macbook but Apple need bringing down a peg or two.
I don’t care to argue if Flash or HTML 5 is the future. You simply can’t distribute a product claiming that it is the greatest device for web viewing ever, if it doesn’t support the current de facto standard for interactive content.
End of argument.
“You simply can’t distribute a product claiming that it is the greatest device for web viewing ever, if it doesn’t support the current de facto standard for interactive content.”
The current standard for interactive content is HTML + JavaScript. Is Google Docs implemented in Flash? Um, no. Does my banking site need Flash to work? Flash is video players, ads, games, and idiotically designed websites.
Solid HTML5 implementation isn’t three years away — it’s running in every browser very well now (as well as Flash — cough) and it works in IE via a plugin (Google Chrome) which — guess what — is how Flash runs in IE.
OK, so HTML 5 is a bit better than the existing HTML drafts in terms of rich media integration. We’re still going to have buggy agents and crossbrowser issues. Besides, it’s still HTML, for god’s sake! You can’t build a complex web application with that. Comparison is just no good here. You might just as well claim that HTML 5 will do away with Java applets. Think again. JRE and Flash are runtimes, not just another declarative spec.
Oh please, enough with comparing penis sizes!
Flash is great. It may have been a gap-filler in the late 90s, but it’s evolved a lot over time as the interactive web and commonplace broadband has become a reality.
BUT
It needs a serious re-write to bring the player up to scratch, get some stability and speed back into it.
HTML+CSS+JS is great. It may have been ropey and patchy 10 years ago, but that was because of the Microsoft/Netscape browser war, not the technology. Now, as standards are adopted and the interactive web and commonplace broadband has become a reality, HTML+CSS+JS has matured and can do most web tasks on its own.
BUT
It doesn’t do ultra-complex, fully interactive applications all that well.
But you know something? They’re nothing more than tools for crying out loud. Each fit for a purpose, and each fit for a different purpose. Use them as you see appropriate!
I’m not going to write my next training package in HTML – I have far too much interactivity going on. Likewise, I’m not going to write my next blog or information site in Flash because I only need static displays fed from a data source.
I’m sorry, but if all you see Flash as is a video player and some godawful, amateur animation or navigation on a piss-end restaurant site then you really have no clue what Flash has been about in recent years.
And I’m sorry, if you think that Flash will always prevail over the low-end functions that HTML 5 are crossing into then you’re overcomplicating your life insisting on staying with older techniques out of some misplaced loyalty or fanboi-ism.
If adoption of HTML 5 goes smoothly and quickly, I for one will be running my web videos through HTML 5 markup. My video-driven, immersive and interactive training tools and content will always be Flash.
The problem isn’t that Flash can’t do ‘x’ the problem is that Adobe is being lazy in making the implementation of Flash ubiquitous across all OS’ and furthermore making it perform as well as possible under all conditions (bad code programming etc. etc.).
Flash on Linux is horrible, Flash on OSX is decent but can flyaway at a moment’s notice. Flash on windows is the only solid implementation but still has its quirks.
This is the reason Jobs wants people to move away from Flash and is the reason for non-inclusion in Apple mobile devices. Who the hell wants a phone they have to reset every time Flash goes rogue and eats all available memory? What kind of end user experience would you expect if you knew this was going to happen time and time again. Why would you pay millions to license a technology that Adobe themselves either can’t fix or can’t figure out how to fix?
Apple would rather push for new standards, video being the most pressing at this time as AJAX is doing a fine job of pushing Flash out of the corporate webspace. Adobe has been worrying too much about pushing back at Apple that they are pushing people into solutions like Aperture.
If Adobe didn’t make Photoshop for Mac, Quark would have been around a lot longer. Photoshop was not the reason that creative professionals flocked to Mac. Simplicity and ease of use was.
Apple’s mind set has changed very little in this regard. Ease of use is tantamount to the Apple paradigm. This does not preclude them from creating new products for different vectors within the same mindset.
@Tonio,
Google Maps, Finance and Analytics are “idiotically designed websites”, aren’t they?
You HTML5 fanboys’ ignorance really has no limits.
@Tonio
You are a fool. Atro only touches the iceberg of your ignorance with those links. May the community at-large shame you.
This is a heated debate!
I can’t believe that Steve Jobs reluctance to allow Flash on his devices has anything to do with protecting any kind of a standard. It has much more to do with protecting his revenue stream. If he was that bothered about protecting standards, Flash wouldn’t run on OSX.
As for what will win in the end, our clients will of course. As developers we will adopt to any technology that drives the kind of sites/applications that our clients want. If that is a future version of Flash or a future specification of HTML or both, or something else, then that will win.
Yes Adobe should improve Flash player efficiency on OSX/Linux, no question about it. But remember, OSX only accounts for 5% of ALL OS installs, and linux represents a virtually nonexistent number.
To bitch and moan because Adobe isn’t giving its full attention to less than 6% of the total market is silly. Essentially, we have a highly vocal minority following Steve Job’s lead no matter how nonsensical it is. They claim it’s about open source standards, yet they gladly embrace Apple’s complete and total lockdown of not just the development but the actual release of any application on Apple’s mobile devices. They also say it’s about security, even though the iPhone was recently hacked in 20 seconds flat, dumping the user’s entire profile, address book, email etc. to the hacker’s server for later perusal. Bottom line – stones in glass houses…
Full disclosure – I own multiple mac pros, a mini, macbook, iphone and have an iPad on preorder, so I’m not an Apple hater by any stretch. But I’m getting really, really sick of the Reality Distortion Field and the fanboy BS. I think this battle harms Apple FAR more than Adobe because it shows just how egotistical and aggressive Jobs is, and how annoying and unreasonable Apple’s faithful can be.
Either way, HTML5+Javascript+css3 will not replace Flash, so get over it:
- Code monkeys seem to think that we all should embrace code as a means to accomplish every task, simply because it’s the domain THEY prefer. It’s only natural that they see no problem cutting visual designers completely out of the development equation. But back in the real world, Flash provides a bridge between coders and designers that HTML5+javascript+css3 can’t touch. If you think the world’s web designers are going to embrace writing 15 lines of code to move a square from left to right, you’re nuts.
- HTML5 may replace Flash for BASIC video embedding with no interactivity or advertising, but to say it’s a Flash killer is hyperbolic stupidity. Can you deploy a complete rich application to OSX desktop, Windows desktop, all web browsers, most mobile phones and (coming soon) iPhone with one set of code within one single application? Think not.
- The proliferation of broadband is quickly leading to more and more sophisticated, rich online experiences that HTML5+css3+Javascript is simply NOT prepared to provide. Prototypes currently making the rounds of Wired Magazine’s RIA (and a few others) is a good example of where things are headed, and those types of experiences require technologies like Flash or a native application. Major publishers aren’t too keen on letting Apple dictate how they develop these RIAs and the largest of them, Conde Nast, has already made it clear that they prefer Flash.
- Quit referring to adverts as a reason to hate Flash. Those ads will always be there, whether done in Flash or Javascript or animated GIFs. We all hate ads, but quit blaming Flash for their existence.
Flash over 10 years of proven, reliable service; tons of resources both open source and third party- HTML 5 over 10 years in waiting, another 3 before solid, and another 10 ? before the world uses it? My money is on Flash , that is what I am studying ( putting the most time in the whole Flash platform Fb, Fc, Fx etc )
The simple fact is that full Flash support by Apple on iPhone/iPad = people can watch free internet media content rather than having to purchase stuff from iTunes. That’s it. Any techno-babble arguments over specifications & coding are merely distractions from Apple’s real motivation: get people’s money (seriously – they charge $25 for a plug adapter! WTF?).
The “YouTube” app has worked fine since iPhone 1.0, and they always used Flash video until recently, so obviously the argument that it “just won’t work well enough” is BS – it just doesn’t make Apple enough $$$.
Uhh… by the time html 5 could possibly take over adobe will be on flash cs 13. Hmm… how many features will be added in ten years vs. html 5 with minimal additons. Does it take rocket scientist to figure this out?
The HTML5 killing Flash visions are laughable.
First off the Apple’s public stance on Flash is its extremely processor intensive therefore HTML5 is the logical choice because it enables “things” to be done without the intensive CPU useage.
What Apple is really thinking… we think Flash is dangerous. It threatens one of our biggest future cash cows “IPhone App Store” and we don’t want to promote an environment where apps are openly available without being the middle man. That is why Apple hates Flash period.
Ultimately they will lose that war just like they lost out on the desktop market in the 80’s and 90’s because they are trying to hold on to a failing way of business and force technology where it doesn’t want to go. Google has already come out with a better product than the Iphone that does everything it does but better in the NexusOne.
Only unvisually gifted develoeprs think HTML5 could possiblity replace Flash. Anyone that knows what they are doing and builds enterprise rich media applications know Flash is the only game in town. Its the only envirnoment that best meshes visual media and programming to truely create “whatever you want” and make it look “however you want”.
For Flash to be phased out Adobe would severely have to be asleep at the wheel. They have an openly avaiable partner in Google that is doing battle with Apple in the cell phone market. Google is dealing with every major carrier expect AT&T. The whole model of you have to download an app to do something is as dated as installing software that has no grasp of the internet. Nobody wants to install the entire internet on their phone and have to worry about updates and resources or very app ever made. The web model of browse to it and get it done is much better and way more efficient.
The Plug-in rich media market is and will always be ahead because its backed by a billion dollar companies and a highly competetive market that is always looking to improve and out do the other guy. HTML5 will come out and will be obsolete from day 1. HTML4 was considered so amazing back in the day and now, its a joke with thousands of unmet needs. A plug-in will always control the rich media market because that company is always going to try and fill a void when the next greatest thing comes out.
@ shakey for “”"”adoption of HTML 5 goes smoothly and quickly, I for one will be running my web videos through HTML 5 markup.”"”"
You do that; and I’ll steal all your clients. The thought of video in a box is such a legacy practice.
Anyone else seen the latest changes to the iPhone developer agreement that has been reported to ban apps built by the CS5 Flash exporter from the App Store?
If true, and bearing in mind the huge size of the App Store, can anyone explain how this would be any different from the sort of anti-competitive behavior that the US and European courts have previously fined Microsoft for?
@Glenn
To say…
“AS3 is a solid pro langue”, is delusion.
Its ok but cmon man, seriously!!!
Also you fail to mention Unity 2.6 when refering to web applications.
@WSz
Calm down! Enjoy HTML 5 video and building for 5 different browsers, thats efficient lol.
And, whats the big difference between Apple and Adobe in terms of the bottom line. Nothing, so why do you talk so much crap, like…
“Apple is the first to show that Flash has no place in the future of the internet”.
To use your own words regarding your particular post…
“lumbering, myopic, and unimaginative”.
Enjoy all.