Adobe CS5 will ship in April 2010

Adbe (Adobe)Piper Jaffray – leading international middle market investment firm, believes investors will start getting positioned for Adobe CS5 now, given the historical CS cycle peak multiple occurs 1-6 months prior to ship. Piper expects Adobe CS5 will ship in April 2010

Adobe Systems (ADBE) is expected to report Q2 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, June 16, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET.

Guidance

The consensus estimate is 35c for EPS and $694.75M for revenue, according to First Call. The company has been able to top quarterly expectations in each of the last four quarters. On its last earnings call, Adobe management provided Q2 guidance of 31c to 38c in EPS and revenue of $675M to $725M.

Analyst Views

Also on that call, Adobe CFO Mark Garrett had had reported that the company has seen its business stabilize since early February, and added that Adobe’s North America business is “closer to a bottom.” The recession has slowed demand in the past couple of quarters for Adobe’s Creative Suite 4, or CS4, the newest version of the software package that brings in the majority of the company’s revenue. But analysts now say that demand for the product looks to be improving amid hopes for an economic recovery.

In a June 10 note, Jefferies analyst Ross MacMillan said that a recent survey by Jefferies “suggests that creative professionals continue to adopt CS4 at a steady pace and there is an increase in the number of individuals that intend to upgrade.”

Based on Piper’s US distributor checks and NPD data the firm expects slight upside on revenue and EPS for Q2, with guidance for Q3 essentially in-line with consensus of 33c on $676.05M in revenue, assuming a Q3 seasonal quarter-over-quarter downtick. While still a few quarters out, Piper believes investors will start getting positioned for CS5 now, given the historical CS cycle peak multiple occurs 1-6 months prior to ship. Piper expects CS5 will ship in April 10.

Thomas Weisel says that while Adobe did indicate in its last report that it was seeing signs of stabilization in the February-March timeframe in its channel, the firm is modeling an 11% sequential decline in Q2 revenue to $701M and a flattish Q3 . Although European-end markets, which is 35% of total revenue, are likely to remain weak for a few more months, Weisel believes that Adobe has been able to put some pricing increases through in some regions, such as the U.K. The firm also expects the Education market, one of Adobe’s largest verticals, to help bridge the gap in Q3 as it shifts to CS4 for the Fall semester. Overall, Weisel suspects visibility is starting to improve somewhat for Adobe as the U.S. shows signs of stabilization and management continues to focus on expense controls.

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76 Responses to “Adobe CS5 will ship in April 2010”

  1. Steven Seventeen says:

    Well, so there it is – CS5 – fine, and at this time Adobe is working on the CS6 ? Or did they reatch the CS7 already?!

    I purchased the CS3 and it was totaly shit (exept AE!)!
    Encore is not working – Premiere crashes all the time (MacPro 8Core 16GB). I am unhappy whit this stuff.

    Never had a response froom the suport!

    And now you release one version after a other…

    Well, as computerpower raises and technology moved on, it?s a logocal step, but please dont ripp off the people how are willing to purchase!

    Greetings

    Current score: 0
  2. damian dodd says:

    @Steven

    Adobe CS is the standard of the design and web industry. Because you can’t figure out how to properly install it, 2 versions ago gives you no right to bash it.

    Current score: 0
  3. mike ornellas says:

    When the pool becomes shallow with bottom feeders the trend is to make new mud to eat. Perspective is geared towards experience and the larger view you have of a product, the more your sight shall be. Re read the last few lines of this article to see what is inevitable for Adobe. The crack pipe has run dry.

    Current score: 0
  4. Madhu Rakhal Magar says:

    Hey Adobe we can’t afford to buy your single product because I am an Engineer and I am earning only $2000 per year. And how can I feed my self if i buy your product. So Please Try to reduce the price for our country (Nepal) and give us a chance to use genuine Product.

    Current score: 0
  5. LOL says:

    What? $2000 a year for an engineer? M just a lowly photographer and law clerk and i earn $30,000. But kudos if you love your job. But hey, CS5 is not gonna be cheap. I have CS4e and I got it for free from Adobe. I’m just lucky. :)

    Current score: 0
  6. Zala Wajik says:

    looking forward for this :D
    I got Photoshop element 6 for free. genuine, and believe me. It is blast even though it is an element.

    Current score: 0
  7. Jack says:

    @LOL – Madhu said he is from Nepal. It’s not a matter of if he loves his job or not, it is a different country and a different economy.

    Current score: 0
  8. Kent says:

    Madhu,
    If you would like a copy of CS4, I can get one to you. Just reply to this post.
    Kent

    Current score: 0
  9. Yeahsure says:

    @damian —

    I have to back Steven up on this one… Yes it’s the industry standard but that doesn’t make it immune to criticism.

    In fairness, CS3 Was a flaky release and frankly Adobe has a reputation for releasing buggy software that you have to pay to fix via a version upgrade. I’ve been pleased with CS4 – but mostly because it fixes many of the CS3 issues I’d encountered.

    If it’s the industry standard, then they need to be respectful of their stakeholder’s budgets and tolerance for software releases that should be incremental bug fixes and not brand new versions.

    I’m very excited to see the MAJOR upgrades in the bulk of the CS5 products and that this is truly a full version upgrade. Still can’t help but feel that maybe CS4 was CS3.5.

    Current score: 0
  10. Cleatus says:

    As for many I am in the same boat with the purchase of new software every year but as a business…… Adobe makes a product and if you want it you must pay what they want. Unfortunately many go for pirated software and Adobe loses on a whole market…….. also if it wasn’t for the hefty price there would be more people out there with legit copies doing work and some of the vets that have been paying for it would get left in the dust. I enjoy Adobe and their line of product as they have become the standard for designers across the board from photography, web, graphic design to film production. For the price to do all this, is minimal but every year or two is getting more like microsoft and I feel the costs are getting a bit crazy…….. I find it a little odd that students, teachers and school staff can get the software for 80% off while some of us that have been using the software from the begining still are paying the big price tag……… so with these discounts makes me believe the market will get saturated by younger people that can get the software cheaper(almost for nothing) and that leaves the vets out in the cold while we have supported Adobe for the past 20 years.

    Adobe has the best product on the planet and it is only going to get better……… but what will it cost us?

    Technology changes and so does the way we do things………. Adobe keeps adapting to the ever growing advances for designers.

    Keep up the great job and make my life easier and easier and easier………

    VIVA ADOBE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    64-bit rocks—– Adobe now utilizes the full power of your system.

    I will own CS5 Master Collection :)
    Adobe the only way to fly>>>>>>>>>

    Adobe if you read this you can send me a free copy of CS5 Master Collection if you would like. I will do a lot of cool things with it……. ;)

    Current score: 0
  11. Lee says:

    Reel em in and get em hooked, thats why! I am a student I love the fact I get 80% off, but trust me I will be made to pay in the future i.e. after uni!

    Current score: 0
  12. Lunden says:

    I’m a design student who due to class scheduling just had to purchase CS4p. Since CS5 is out within less then 2 months of my purchase is there anyway for me to upgrade for free? if not what would the student upgrade cost?

    Current score: 0
  13. Jabe says:

    I can’t wait to make Iphone apps in Flash CS5!

    Current score: 0
  14. Heidi C. says:

    I guess, as some of this shows, arrogance truly is the mark of “me generation”.

    Current score: 0
  15. tanny says:

    there will be no flash in this version, for iphone, ipad or ipod touch. The adobe is about to sue apple about this, because apple says Flash right now still isn’t good enough for an ipad or iphone, it still use a lot of memory and GPU to. so apple wouldn’t use it for this generation for sure.

    maybe in a few generation when the i7 was in the iphone then we can use flash lol, just kidding, i don’t know too when but not soon.
    sorry for my bad english

    Current score: 0
  16. BladeRider says:

    I read from websites and forums that this CS5 Master Collection is not final release yet.Can anybody tell me when the final release will officially available?Thanks

    Current score: 0
  17. Grant Dow says:

    tanny flash cs5 will enable creation of native iCrap appz meaning the iCraps will not have to be able to run flash.

    whether they are allowed to get any of these appz in the istore is another matter since apple’s new app policy means everything has to be written in c from the outset – which if to take literally it means that no1 can write appz for the iCraps anymore unless they are able to think in c without any english > c conversion thought process.
    But I digress… It just means Crapple have another avenue to block good quality appz without having to use their “we can kill your app if we don’t like the look of you” clause. The wording of their policy implies that the app sore will be free from low quality appz but in fact it’s awash with junk

    Current score: 0
  18. saajan says:

    i don’t know why adobe people keep their prices so much high.

    i am an indian earning 200$ a month in my photo editing shop just tell me from where i will purchase that much costly software.
    cant you release some low price version for poor countries.

    Current score: 0
  19. acipe says:

    flash is kaputt, about time

    Current score: 0
  20. Matt says:

    CS5 will ship tomorrow morning (4/30). Orders will go to order tonight. Was at a an Adobe Launch Event this evening, and Adam Pratt, Sales Rep from Adobe said everything is shipping tomorrow. Hence, the Free Shipping deal that only goes through April 29th.

    Current score: 0
  21. Eric says:

    @ Steven Seventeen

    Is it Steven Seventeen because you’re 17 years old?

    If so, you should probably avoiding fussing about how you’re willing to purchase the best of the best, until you can actually pay for something yourself.

    Also, you spelled except wrong.

    Current score: 0
  22. jj says:

    I agree that pricing is too high and I sympathize with those in developing economies where the pricing can represent months of work.
    Adobe discounts to students just like a crack dealer …to create their future market. Why not reduce the price generally so people world wide can afford it and can upgrade more frequently. We can’t even buy a new camera without re-investing in photoshop and lightroom because often the new camera’s raw profile is only offered in new releases of ACR that don’t work with 2 year old versions of the programs. I totally respect Adobe’s creative team. The products are great but the company’s pricing and upgrade policies are brutal.

    Current score: 0
  23. Susan McClure says:

    You only have to take one class at a community college to classed as a student. You just have to get a student ID card to get the student version. But with the student version you are not supposed to use it for commercial ventures.

    The Adobe Creative Suites, no matter what version, are incredible pieces of work and kuddos to all the people that work for Adobe or have worked for them to come up with such complex yet useful software with so many wonderful and unique features. They are so ahead of so much of the other similar software that is out there that only does a small percentage of the stuff the Adobe Creative Suite software does.

    Current score: 0
  24. Damian says:

    I am a photographer from a third world country and I’m unable to charge a client excess amount of money especially with the economy that I live in. My clients demand things that only photoshop can do and it seem that as photographers in this environment we suffer from the high cost of this product.

    All of the PS softwares has always been expensive and it seem Adobe is more into the upgrade mode than they are in the fixing mode so every few months they announce a new upgrade coming out while there are still issues with the current versions. All I’m saying is that Adobe needs to continue to offer support for older versions (at lease 2-3 vs back) for the people who cannot afford to purchase this software again.

    Cameras like Nikon and Canon the leaders in the industry comes out with new cameras on a regular basis but they don’t just stop making fixes to older cameras software. I still am able to get firmware update for my D70s that I’ve had even when new cards come out so it can be compatible.

    Food for thought Adobe, you would be nothing without your customers that has supported you over the years so be good to us.

    Current score: 0
  25. cheap ghd says:

    Encore is not working – Premiere crashes all the time (MacPro 8Core 16GB). I am unhappy whit this stuff.

    Current score: 0
  26. jerry4bow says:

    I just received an email from B&H Photo that my CS5 just shipped.

    Current score: 0

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